submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental US dollar forecast for today
Investors are staying aside ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech and the publications of the US important domestic dataPeople see what they want to see. The euro fans are so enthusiastic that they prefer to ignore the flaws of the single European currency. Is the US-China trade resumed? It is not a problem! In 2018-2019, the EUUSD pair was falling amid the trade conflict escalation. In 2020, however, it will be rising in this case because of the diversification of the PBOC FX reserves in favor of the euro. Are there talks about the expansion of European QE? It is not a problem! The ECB just can’t ease its monetary policy as much as the Fed. Is there the second pandemic wave in Europe? It doesn’t matter; the illness is asymptomatic; there won’t be another lockdown.
Optimism grows stronger. However, people with accompanying pathologies most often die from COVID-19. If we transfer this metaphor to the global economic sense, the accompanying pathology of the export-led euro-area economy is a downturn of the international trade. The process started because of trade wars, and the pandemic intensified it. According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, flows of goods across borders were 12.5% lower in the second quarter than in the first quarter of the year. It is the worst drop since records started in 2000. In the three months through June, the US exports contracted by 24.8%, the euro-area exports were 19.2% down. However, the US exports account for 20% of the country’s GDP; in the Eurozone, they exceed 40%. The euro-area exporters will have a difficult time, taking into account the euro’s rapid growth.
With this regard, the USA is in a better position, which allows the White House to repeat its mantra about the V-shaped economic recovery. People see what they want to see. Larry Kudlow, the chief economic advisor to Trump, ignores the problems of the US labor market and the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest level since 2014. He stresses the best new home sales over the past 14 years, industrial recovery, and the S&P500 record highs.
Dynamics of US consumer confidence
Dynamics of new home sales in USA
Unlike the White House, the Federal Reserve is more cautious. Jerome Powell has many times stressed the slow GDP recovery, the necessity to take control over OCVID-19, and fresh fiscal stimulus. The Republicans and Democrats can’t reach an agreement for a new financial aid package, and the Fed has to take the responsibility. So, investors anticipate Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole to get something meaningful.
According to MUFG Bank, Powell will focus on holding low interest rates, thereby weakening the greenback. Investors expect the Fed Chair to express the Fed’s willingness to “seek a moderate inflation overshoot” and reinforce its commitment to full employment. If so, there will be other evidence that the Fed is running out of monetary tools. If the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits falls while durable goods orders rise, the EUUSD bears can go ahead and try to break out the support levels of 1.178 and 1.1755. Otherwise, weak data and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the dollar can resume the greenback’s downtrend.
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EUR/USD Forex Forecasts - Forex Trading Forecasts . Entering the market spontaneously and not based on forecasts can never lead to success and only causes losses. Traders who cannot make forecasts themselves are recommended to refer to this information on our site. Although Euro is quite a young currency, EUR/USD currency pair consists of the two world's main currencies and is at present the ... EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long EUR/USD for the first time since May 18, 2020 when EUR/USD traded near 1.09. 2020-11-02 12:23:00 EUR/USD🇪🇺🇺🇸 is expected to test the 0.236 fib lvl but according to Stochastic the price is expected to be rejected by it and pullback down to the 1.17998 lvl. If you like the idea PLEASE don't forget to hit the LIKE 👍👍👍button Also share your thoughts and charts here in the comment ⌨️ section. EUR/USD Forecast and Analysis June 8 — 12, 2020. In favor of the fall of the EUR/USD currency pair on FOREX, a test of the resistance line on the relative strength index (RSI) will come out. The second signal will be a rebound from the upper boundary of the downward channel. Cancellation of the option of falling quotes of the Euro/Dollar pair ... EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 12, 2020 Trader reaction to a pair of 50% level at 1.1762 to 1.1807 should determine the direction of the EUR/USD today. Read More EUR/USD Forecast. Charts, Outlook, Current Trading Positions and Technical Analysis on EUR/USD for Today, this Week, this Month and this Quarter. Professional Predictions from our Forex Experts. EUR to USD rate target in 14 days: ... 0.12 % EUR to USD Forecast for 2025: October 2025: Open: 1.0863: Close: 1.07746: Min: 1.07746: Max: 1.08667: Change: -0.82 % EUR to USD Forecast for 2025: November 2025: Open: 1.07659: Close: 1.06868: Min: 1.06868: Max: 1.07659: Change: -0.74 % > Page 2: detailed data / exchange rate table Short-term and long-term EUR/USD (Euro / United States Dollar ...
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